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Scott Alexander

@ScottAlexander

accredited investor

astralcodexten.substack.com

$99,015.19total balance

$96,648charity balance

$0cash balance

$2,367 in pending offers

Investments

OPTICbought $9.03K @ $9.2K valuation

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topicsbought $42 @ $600 valuation

Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Marylandbought $7.5K @ $7.5K valuation

Blog about Forecasting Global Catastrophic Risksbought $450 @ $450 valuation

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheetsbought $160 @ $250 valuation

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impactsbought $1.55K @ $2K valuation

Telegram bot for Manifold Marketsbought $254 @ $300 valuation

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Riskbought $95 @ $125 valuation

Comparing forecasting platform accuracybought $674 @ $800 valuation

Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity marketsbought $300 @ $300 valuation

Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reportingbought $514 @ $600 valuation

Interpretable Forecasting with Transformersbought $63 @ $250 valuation

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazardsbought $200 @ $200 valuation

Impact Assessment of Social Programsbought $500 @ $1K valuation

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifoldbought $6.89K @ $7K valuation

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majorsbought $250 @ $250 valuation

Crystal Ballin' Podcastbought $289 @ $300 valuation