Isaac's power-user Manifold search and dashboard

Extreme Probabilities Project

Explore a market structure that attempts to produce good probability estimates on highly-confident markets.

OPTIC

Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournament

Wasabipesto's Umbrella Project

Six Projects in Search of an Investor - Details inside

China’s Incoming AI Ethics Leadership Push

There is a 70% chance that China will tie AI ethics into its Digital Silk Road, releasing a global AI ethics framework targeting developing countries.

Manifold: Live!

A weekly community livestream/discord call where top traders discuss the week's events on Manifold and live-bet with the audience on markets from new users

Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Maryland

Mirrorbot

Automatically mirror popular questions from other platforms to Manifold

Manufacture Manyfold Manifolders in the Maritime Metropolis

Lets create a new defining addiction for Seattle!

Isaac's Blog Writing

Case's Manifold Contributions Umbrella Project

Doing all the things

Satoshi's Antithesis: China to use CBDC to Boost CNY Trade

There is a 95% chance China will trade internationally with their eCNY CBDC an annual volume in excess of $50bn USD by 2028

Telegram bot for Manifold Markets

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold

Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets

An Add-on for easy access to Manifold´s Prediction Markets

Allow anyone to quickly understand pred market accuracy with basic one-liner

Digestible alternative to brier scores & calibration charts, helping the public understand how good prediction markets are

Predict on random markets - Manifold tool

"Just hand me markets to make bets on!"

Trading bot guide

More bots, better predictions!

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments

Complex Simulations of Novel Governance Designs with Multi-Agent LLMs