OPTIC

Intercollegiate Forecasting Tournament

Provide Rationality / EA Education at University of Maryland

Telegram bot for Manifold Markets

A tool for making well sized (~Kelly optimal) bets on manifold

Instead of saying "I want to bet $X on this market" you will say "I think the true probability is Y%", and it will tell you how much to bet

Manifold Markets Add-on for Google Sheets

An Add-on for easy access to Manifold´s Prediction Markets

Superforecaster predictions of long-term impacts

I will pay 30 superforecasters to make forecasts of long-run treatment effects from randomised control trials

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 2 of 3: Hurricane Hazards

Promoting forecasts in order to help mitigate weather risks, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Impact Assessment of Social Programs

Verifying and Quantifying the Outcomes of Nonprofits

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics

Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com

Manifold feature to improve non-resolving popularity markets

Add additional social incentives to bet YES to publicly signal value/support/belief and NO to signal the opposite.

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 1 of 3: College Majors

Promoting forecasts in order to help college choose their field of study, then evaluating the effect of this information.

Crystal Ballin' Podcast

New fortnightly podcast on all things prediction markets

Forecast Dissemination Mini-Market 3 of 3: Earthquake Risk

Evaluating whether forecasts of earthquake risk lead people to take steps to prepare

Standardized Tools for Impact Market Reporting

Working towards GAAP For Impact Markets

Comparing forecasting platform accuracy

Multiplayer RootClaim

Allowing prediction market participants to construct, share & clone prediction models

GradeFact

Credit scores for predictions made by news, media, public figures to keep them accountable

Base Rate Times

Like The Economist meets Metaculus

Haruspex [Forecasting Competition Platform]

Mobile platform for some forecasting games

Predicting Replication in Academic Economics

Replicate one year of the AER, test robustness, and see if it's predictable.