Investigating and informing the public about the trajectory of AI

MusicBets - Let's Predict the Grammys!

A Music Prediction Markets App like Manifold & Polymarket but specifically for all things music

Lightcone Infrastructure

Funding for LessWrong.com, the AI Alignment Forum, Lighthaven and other Lightcone Projects

Act I: Exploring emergent behavior from multi-AI, multi-human interaction

Community exploring and predicting potential risks and opportunities arising from a future that involves many independently controlled AI systems

Fund Sentinel for Q1-2025

A foresight and emergency response team seeking to react fast to calamities

The Base Rate Times

News through prediction markets

Make ALERT happen

ALERT := Active Longtermist Emergency Response Team

Play money prediction markets

Community-run, open source prediction market platform

Calibration City

Prediction markets have the potential to reshape the way we process information, but how accurate are they in practice?

Adjacent News

Prediction Market Driven News

Forecasting - AI Governance Policies

Fatebook and Quantified Intuitions

Forecasting tools by Sage. Fatebook: the fastest way to track your predictions. Quantified Intuitions: Forecasting training tools with rapid feedback loops

Future-Proofing Forecasting: Easy Open-Source Solution

Free Forecasting For Everyone, Everywhere

Forecasting Meetup Network - Washington, DC pilot (4 meetups)

Local meetups of forecasters, fans of prediction markets, and others interested in improving humanity’s ability to predict the future.

Exploring novel approaches to addressing Global Catastrophic Risk through policy

Operational Support for a Pilot Study on Complexity Modelling, Expert Judgement, and Deliberative Democracy for Risk Prioritization and Mitigation

University Forecasting Clubs [OPTIC]

Funding to start 3-5 university forecasting clubs as a subproject of OPTIC

Eliciting Probability Trees

5 person dev team - if experts wrote down probabilities more, would we get better decisions?

Subsidize Real Money Prediction Markets on High Impact Topics

Create Subsidized Prediction Markets On Polymarket.com

Thai Ethical Enlightenment: Empowering Effective Altruism Through Translation

translating utilitarianism.net contents and The Life You Can Save into Thai

Automate Social Science and Produce Free, Open, Standardized Data

All funds go toward producing data